It seems we can now rule out engine failure or fuel starvation/contamination. The witness who was very close to the accident scene and "jumped the fence" to reach the wreck said that "the engine sounded normal, he never cut back on the engine, he sounded wide open". You can see the interview and video shots of the accident scene at:
http://www.wesh.com/news/central-flo...z/-/index.html
I continue to be both surprised and worried about this accident, and what it means for Skymaster pilots.
Paul's Mayday call suggests that it was not incapacitation but, until we know details of the call, I don't think we can rule it out -- it may have been him uttering "Mayday" at the onset of pain and as he planned to turn back to the airport.
Because witnesses descriptions indicate that the airplane was whole as it struck the trees, we may be able to rule out structural failure (i.e., airplane breaking apart in flight).
So, until incapacitation is ruled out, we are left with that and failure of a control surface as the most likely culprits.
And here we may want to look at failure of a flap cable. One witness said that "the plane was sideways through the trees". Was that Paul's turn back to the airport or the aircraft rolling because the flap on one of the wings snapped back to its neutral position due to a broken cable while the other flap remained in its extended 1/3 position for take-off? And the wide-open throttle described by witnesses adds to this, because on Paul's last message on the flap-cable thread he says "And a reminder for us all to be primed to quickly retract the flaps and
add full power in case of un-commanded roll" (emphasis mine).
My apologies if some of you believe this is speculative and inappropriate. The new witness details allow us to rule out some factors (e.g., fuel starvation/contamination), so I think it's not speculative. And I think Paul would want all of us to fly safer.
Ernie