[Skymaster337B]

I looked at the weather for the Portland area at the approximate mishap time. Weather at Portland was between OVC 19 and BKN 23, with a temp of 18C due point at 14C, 79% humidity but not raining at the time -- but did rain earlier and later in the day, most for this month so far. I couldn't find what the cloud tops were, but I'll take a guess and say two things. One, they were IFR at 8,000ft. Two, icing was very possible at 8,000ft using a standard lapse rate and the unequal heating of the ocean. Therefore, with no other facts before me, I will presume this mishap was caused by failure to maintain aircraft control or failure to avoid icing conditions, or both. This is a common theme in most GA accidents I read on the NTSB web site, with nighttime being the other factor not present in this mishap.

Although the NTSB database does not have this accident available yet, I look forward to what it will say and whether my presumptions are correct.

The take away from all this...fly VMC unless you have the equipment to fly IMC...radar, de-ice, and not just basic instruments and a VOR. I see IFR as a means to get me out of a situation rather than get me into one. I use IFR to get in or out of an airport, and into forecast VFR conditions. Flying solid IFR in airplanes without the radar or deice doesn't make much sense to me. I know some Skymasters have both...and that would be a wonderful thing; but I'll guess that most do not.

My prayers go out to their families, and to all of us who are still blessed to fly these wonderful machines.